I found a few things interesting about this Link recent article:
1. This is the first time that I've noticed the sub-title from the blog doesn't come over to the Forums post. This article's sub-title is, "America Looks for a way out but cant find the escape hatch". This idea is supported in the text by:
Bush has already stated that he wil [sic] withdraw his troops from Iraq if the new government asks for a withdrawl [sic]. It is clear that the USA wants to cut its losses and leave but does not want to do so in a manner that reminds the world of the American departure from Vietnam. It is hoping for a Allawi victory which would give USA more room for manoevring [sic].
If it is "clear" that the US government wants an easy out, why would they hope for Allawi's group to win? Isn't it more likely that a less friendly coalition of parties would vote our ground forces out? Or do you think we'll just be able to say, "Hey, Ayad, little help?"
Many who discussed the option of a either a full population referendum or a legislative decision for this purpose admitted they feared that it would appear that the US was looking for an easy out. I personally feel that it's a nod to the folks who have been questioning our legitimacy of being there in the first place. I think that anyone who would question the US's legal claim to be in Iraq in the first place, but then would also suspect our asking the Iraqis if we should stay as a duplicitous plot are simply looking to paint a target on the US government (or perhaps just Bush's administration).
2. It's the violence that makes the election suspect, but that's the fault of those trying to hold the election? There is a possible Sunni boycott of the process, so this invalidates the process in their eyes? "I'm not going to play the game, just stand here as you take the ball past me to the goal, so therefore you didn't really score..." If the Sunni fear for their lives (and many of them do, with pamphlets being collected on the streets bearing death threats towards anyone heading to the polls or even perhaps being on the street), then it is more understandable for them to not vote. But if they feel that not voting will make a difference (a concept that may be shared by some Americans 
), they may find themselves sadly mistaken as they hand over their legitimate place in the government. In this, I agree with your build-up, but not your conclusion.
3. Most characterizations I can find of Allawi depict him as a very political being. The dates I could find for Allawi's membership with the Ba'ath Party are from 1961 (he would have been 17) to 1971 (10 years later). 10 years/59 years is a lifelong membership now... I know some SGTs that might agree with that, as far as the US Army goes, but still.
I, too, would be interested in seeing anything that would point to the Prime Minister's propensity for "using torture against his political rivals and ... [indulging] his passion for killing."
4. I actually agree with your main point, at least in theory. These elections may very well not stop the violence in Iraq. However, I think it will bring that end one very big step closer.